Here's a forecast worth planning around: BuildForce Canada's 2026–2035 outlook for New Brunswick, released this July, projects that renovation work will steadily strengthen until it passes new home construction as the main driver of residential building investment — in 2028. The province's construction future is, increasingly, other people's existing houses.
What's driving it
- New builds are coming off a peak. After record residential investment in 2025, housing starts are projected to slow over the decade — down 56% below 2025 levels by 2035.
- The workforce is aging out. Even with roughly 7,200 first-time new entrants expected from the local population, BuildForce sees a possible shortfall of up to 1,300 construction workers as retirements bite.
- Mega-projects compete for the same hands. From 2027, non-residential work ramps up — the Mactaquac dam refurbishment, NB Power's capital program, a new RCMP detachment in Salisbury, the Fredericton courthouse, a correctional centre in Minto — all hiring from the same trades pool as your bathroom reno.
- Training is ramping, slowly. New registrations in NB's largest construction trades programs hit a record 1,100 in 2023 — but completions still lag what the decade needs.
What this means for your project list
When renovations become the industry's main event and the workforce is short, the math for homeowners is simple: lead time is the new currency. Projects that used to be booked in two weeks will take two months to schedule. Contractors will choose — and they choose organized clients with clear scopes, decisions made, and deposits ready over vague someday-maybe jobs.
💡 Winter is the opening
The same outlook is why this blog keeps saying it: the off-season is when calendars have gaps. Interior work quoted and booked in fall and winter gets done while everyone else is still making New Year's resolutions about their kitchen.
None of this argues for rushing into work you don't need. It argues for sequencing what you do need — quote early, decide once, and hold your spot. By 2028, that's not a tip. It's just how the market works.
The province is recruiting its way out — slowly
New Brunswick has aimed its immigration pathway squarely at the gap, limiting it to healthcare, education and construction workers, and funded a path for military members moving into construction jobs. Those pipelines matter, but they run in years, not months. Between now and then, the experienced crews already working in Greater Moncton are the whole supply — which is why their calendars fill the way they do.